Forecasting - 2017

To enrol in this unit, you must be accepted into a course from the provider. Read before you start

Unit summary


  • Level of Study: Postgraduate
  • Study load: 0.125 EFTSL
  • Delivery method: Fully Online
  • Prerequisites: Yes
  • Duration: 13 weeks
  • Government loans available: FEE-HELP
  • Availability for 2017: SP3
  • Availability for 2018: SP3
  • Assessment: Assignment (40%) , Invigilated Exam (50%) - Learn more

Unit provided by

2017 Fees
Domestic 2,600.00
Domestic continuing 2,472.00
International 2,850.00
International continuing 2,722.00

Tuition fees are reduced for continuing registered SWI students.
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This unit introduces students to a range of forecasting methods and their application to planning and decision-making. It aims to teach students about common tools and packages used in forecasting, the use of historical data to identify appropriate forecasting model, the use of accuracy measures to check the adequacy of the selected model, use the final model to forecast future values.

Please note: assessment values are indicative only, details will be advised at the start of the unit.

At the completion of this unit students will be able to:
  1. Plot time series and describe their characteristics. Identify fundamental concepts in time series modelling, such as time series decomposition and stationarity
  2. Compute indices based on time series data
  3. Appraise the limitations of regression as a forecasting tool. Defend univariate forecasting methods such as ARIMA and exponential smoothing, identifying appropriate models
  4. Assess forecast performance using key measures of forecast accuracy such as MSE and MAPE
  5. Develop the ability to perform time series modelling and forecasting
  6. Interpret forecast results for a general non-statistical audience.
  • Assignment (40%)
  • Invigilated Exam (50%)
  • Quiz (10%)
For more information on invigilated exams see Exams and results

Equivalent units

You cannot enrol in this unit if you have successfully completed any of the following unit(s) because they are considered academically equivalent:

  • HMS782 — Forecasting

Mandatory prerequisites

You must have successfully completed the following unit(s) before starting this unit:

If you have completed equivalent study at another university, please contact a Student Advisor for advice.

  • Other special requirement — You will be asked to sign and return an agreement form in order to obtain a free copy of SAS 9.2. Note: SAS will only run on a Windows platform.

In order to enrol in this unit, you must be accepted into one of the following courses:

Please visit the course details page and read the Requirements tab for more information about eligibility.

This unit addresses the following topics.

1Time series forecasting methods
2Measures of accuracy
3Introduction to smoothing methods
4Methods for stationary forecasting
5Methods for trend forecasting
6Seasonal forecasts by smoothing
7Decomposition methods
8Regression and forecasting with cycles
9Removal of non-stationarity
10Interpretation of the autocorrelation function and the partial autocorrelation function
11ARIMA model identification
12SARIMA model identification

This unit is delivered using the following methods and materials:

Instructional Methods

  • Discussion Forum/Discussion Board
  • Online Quizzes/Tests
  • Online assignment submission
  • Web links

Print based materials

  • Welcome Letter

Online materials

  • Printable format materials

This unit is a core requirement in the following courses:

This unit may be eligible for credit towards other courses:

  1. Many undergraduate courses on offer through OUA include 'open elective' where any OUA unit can be credited to the course. You need to check the Award Requirements on the course page for the number of allowed open electives and any level limitations.
  2. In other cases, the content of this unit might be relevant to a course on offer through OUA or elsewhere. In order to receive credit for this unit in the course you will need to supply the provider institution with a copy of the Unit Profile in the approved format, which you can download here. Note that the Unit Profile is set at the start of the year, and if textbooks change this may not match the Co-Op textbook list.

Textbooks are subject to change within the academic year. Students are advised to purchase their books no earlier than one to two months before the start of a unit.

Click on the titles of the listed books below to find out more:

Required textbooks

  • Forecasting Methods and Applications 3E

    By:Makridakis, Spyros G.

    ISBN: 9780471532330


    Supplier:Go to The Co-op Bookshop

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