Forecasting
HMS782
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Level of study: What does Postgraduate mean?
Postgraduate
EFTSL: What does EFTSL mean?
0.125
Delivery Method: What does delivery method mean?
Web Dependent
Prerequisites: What are the prerequisites?
Availability: What is a Study period?
For enrolment (2012): For forward planning* (2013): What is Forward Planning?- SP1
- -
- SP3
- -
Duration:
13 weeks
Government loans available:
FEE-HELP FEE-HELP
Fee: Fees (current and planned)
- Domestic student fee:
- $1,950.00 (AUD)
- International student fee:
- $2,175.00 (AUD)
Description
This unit aims to introduce you to various forecasting methods and their application in business and industry. You will become familiar with common tools and packages used in forecasting so that you are able to:
- use historical data to identify appropriate forecasting models
- use various accuracy measures to check the adequacy of the selected model
- use the final model to forecast future values
- improve your team-working and analytical skills.
Please note: Assessment values are indicative only; details will be advised at the start of the unit.
Enrolment Restriction
In order to enrol in this unit, you must be accepted into one of the following courses:
If you wish to seek approval to enrol in this unit without being accepted in a course, please contact OUA regarding the process.
Prerequisites
Recommended prerequisites
You are recommended to have completed the following unit(s) or have equivalent knowledge before starting this unit:
Special Requirements
- Additional materials
- Other special requirement — You will be asked to sign and return an agreement form in order to obtain a free copy of SAS 9.2. Note: SAS will only run on a Windows platform.
Assessment
- Assignment 1 (20%)
- Assignment 2 (20%)
- Invigilated Exam (50%)
- Quiz (10%)
Learning Outcomes
At the completion of this unit students will be able to:
- extract time series data from ABS web sites
- compute indices based on time series data
- plot time series and describe their characteristics
- use various methods to obtain short-term forecasts
- compare the accuracy of these forecasts using appropriate measures
- construct regression models for time series data and test the assumptions of these models
- variable selection using stepwise and best subset regression procedures
- use the ACF and PACF to identify appropriate ARIMA models for a series
- fit and compare the accuracy of likely ARIMA models for short-term forecasting purposes using appropriate criteria
- improve the accuracy of regression forecasts using lagged terms and AR models for the errors.
Topics
This unit addresses the following topics.
| Number | Topic |
|---|---|
| 1 | Time series forecasting methods |
| 2 | Measures of accuracy |
| 3 | Introduction to smoothing methods |
| 4 | Methods for stationary forecasting |
| 5 | Methods for trend forecasting |
| 6 | Seasonal forecasts by smoothing |
| 7 | Decomposition methods |
| 8 | Regression and forecasting with cycles |
| 9 | Removal of non-stationarity and the autocorrelation function |
| 10 | ARMA models |
| 11 | ARIMA models |
| 12 | SARIMA models |
| 13 | Lagged regression models |
Study Resources
This unit is delivered using the following methods and materials:
Instructional Methods
- Discussion Forum/Discussion Board
- Online Quizzes/Tests
- Online assignment submission
- Web links
Print based materials
- Welcome Letter
Online materials
- Printable format materials
Textbooks are subject to change within the academic year. Students are advised to purchase their books no earlier than one to two months before the start of a unit.
Click on the titles of the listed books below to find out more:
Recommended textbooks
There are no recommended textbooks for this unit.
Relevant Courses
This unit is a core requirement in the following courses:
- Graduate Diploma of Science (Applied Statistics), Swinburne University of Tnlgy
- Master of Science (Applied Statistics), Swinburne University of Tnlgy
This unit may be eligible for credit towards other courses:
- Many undergraduate courses on offer through OUA include 'open elective' where any OUA unit can be credited to the course. You need to check the Award Requirements on the course page for the number of allowed open electives and any level limitations.
- In other cases, the content of this unit might be relevant to a course on offer through OUA or elsewhere. In order to receive credit for this unit in the course you will need to supply the provider institution with a copy of the Unit Profile in the approved format, which you can download here. Note that the Unit Profile is set at the start of the year, and if textbooks change this may not match the Unibooks textbook list.
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